Heart rate and premature atrial contractions at 24hECG independently predict atrial fibrillation in a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Low resting heart rate and premature atrial contractions (PACs) predict incident atrial fibrillation (AF) and could be interdependent, since PACs occur in the gaps between normal beats. OBJECTIVE: To study the association between low heart rate at 24hECG, PACs and incident AF in a prospective population-based cohort. METHODS: In the Malmö Diet and Cancer study, 24hECGs were performed in 377 AF-free subjects. The endpoint was clinical AF retrieved from national hospital (mean follow-up 17 years). The interaction between increased supraventricular activity (SVA) top quartile of either PACs/hour or supraventricular tachycardias/hour) and mean heart rate (mHR) as regards AF risk was assessed in multivariable Cox regression analyses adjusted for age, sex, height, BMI, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication, smoking and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance. RESULTS: There were 80 (21%) incident cases of AF. Below median mHR (80 bpm/75 bpm for women/men) was associated with increased AF incidence (HR: 1.89, 95% CI 1.18 to 3.02, p=0.008). There was no correlation between mHR and SVA (p=0.6) or evidence of a multiplicative interaction between these factors for AF risk (p for interaction=0.6) In the group with both increased SVA and below median mHR (17% of the population) the relative risk of AF was very high (HR 4.5, 95% CI 2.2 to 9.1, p=0.001). CONCLUSION: Low mHR at 24hECG independently predicts AF, but there is no association between mHR and SVA, and these factors are independent as regards AF risk. Subjects with both low mHR and increased SVA have high AF risk.

Blood cadmium concentration and risk of subarachnoid haemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: Cadmium is a toxic metal and exposure is mainly from diet and tobacco smoke. Cadmium is accumulated in blood vessels and may reduce synthesis of procollagen and inhibit proliferation of vascular smooth muscle cells. High blood cadmium has been associated with increased risk of myocardial infarction, stroke and unruptured intracranial aneurysms. We examined whether blood cadmium increase the risk of subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH). METHODS: The Malmö Diet and Cancer cohort (n = 28,449) was examined in 1991-1996 and blood samples were taken. Incidence of SAH was followed up to 2014. Cadmium was measured in stored blood samples from incident SAH cases and matched controls (n = 93 vs n = 276) and odds ratio (OR) for SAH was assessed in a nested case control design. RESULTS: Subjects with cadmium concentration in the highest quartile had increased risk of SAH compared to those in the first quartile (OR: 3.22, 95%CI: 1.67-6.22). However, after adjusting for smoking, results were weakened and non-significant (OR: 1.57, 95%CI: 0.51-4.80). CONCLUSIONS: Cadmium concentration was associated with increased risk of SAH but this association was largely explained by smoking. Whether cadmium in tobacco may contribute to the vascular pathology and increased risk of SAH in smokers should be further studied.

Blood Lead Levels and Risk of Atherosclerosis in the Carotid Artery: Results from a Swedish Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Lead exposure has been associated with increased incidence of adverse clinical cardiovascular outcomes. Atherosclerosis has been suggested as one of the underlying mechanisms, and findings from experimental studies support this, but human data are scarce. OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to determine the association between environmental lead exposure based on blood lead (B-Pb) concentrations and the prevalence of atherosclerotic plaque in the carotid artery. METHODS: We used cross-sectional data from the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study cardiovascular cohort (MDCS-CC; recruitment in 1991-1994) covering 4,172 middle-aged men and women. B-Pb at baseline, measured by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, was used as the exposure biomarker. The presence of atherosclerotic plaque in the carotid artery was determined by B-mode ultrasonography. We used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for prevalence of plaque in the carotid artery according to B-Pb quartiles. RESULTS: The median B-Pb was 25µg/L (range: 1.5-258), and 36% of the cohort had any atherosclerotic plaque. After controlling for confounders and known cardiovascular risk factors, the OR for prevalence of plaque in the highest quartile (Q4) of B-Pb compared with the lowest quartile (Q1) was 1.35 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.66) in the total group, 1.58 (95% CI: 1.20, 2.08) among women, and 1.18 (95% CI: 0.83, 1.69) among men. Among women, associations were limited to those who were postmenopausal [OR for Q4 vs. Q1=1.72 (95% CI: 1.26, 2.34) vs. OR=0.96 (95% CI: 0.49, 1.89 in premenopausal women)]. Associations were weak and nonsignificant in never-smokers [OR for Q4 vs. Q1=1.14 (95% CI: 0.81, 1.61)]. DISCUSSION: Our study shows an association between B-Pb concentrations and occurrence of atherosclerotic plaque in the carotid artery, adding evidence for an underlying pro-atherogenic role of lead in cardiovascular disease. Associations appeared to be limited to postmenopausal (vs. premenopausal) women. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5057.

Smoking-induced risk of future cardiovascular disease is partly mediated by cadmium in tobacco: Malmö Diet and Cancer Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is a strong risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and causes exposure to cadmium, which is a pro-atherosclerotic metal. Cadmium exposure has also been shown to increase the risk of CVD, even after adjustment for smoking. Our hypothesis was that part of the risk of CVD in smokers may be mediated by cadmium exposure from tobacco smoke. We examined this hypothesis in a mediation analysis, trying to assess how much of the smoking-induced CVD risk could be explained via cadmium. METHODS: We used prospective data on CVD (incidence and mortality) in a Swedish population-based cohort of 4304 middle-aged men and women (the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study). Blood cadmium was analyzed in base-line samples from 1991, and clinical events were followed up for 16-19 years based on registry data. Mediation analysis was conducted to evaluate the indirect effect (via cadmium) of smoking on CVD. Survival was analyzed by the accelerated failure time (AFT) model and the Aalen additive hazard model. RESULTS: The mean blood cadmium level in the study population was 0.43 µg/L (median 0.24 µg/L) and increased with recent and current smoking. As expected, shorter survival time (AFT model) and higher incidence rate (Aalen model) were found in current smokers for all CVD outcomes and this effect seemed to be partly mediated by cadmium. For the sum of acute myocardial infarction, bypass grafts and percutaneous coronary intervention, and death in ischemic heart disease, about half of the increased risk of such events in current smokers was mediated via cadmium, with similar results for the AFT and Aalen models. CONCLUSIONS: Cadmium plays an important role in smoking-induced CVDs. This provides evidence for mechanisms and is of importance for both individuals and policy makers.

Biomarkers of blood cadmium and incidence of cardiovascular events in non-smokers: results from a population-based proteomics study.

BACKGROUND: Cadmium is a toxic metal with multiple adverse health effects, including risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The mechanistic link between cadmium and CVD is unclear. Our aim was to examine the associations between blood cadmium (B-Cd) and 88 potential protein biomarkers of CVD. METHODS: B-Cd and 88 plasma proteins were measured in a community-based prospective cohort, the Malmö Diet and Cancer study. The primary analysis was performed in never smokers (n = 1725). Multiple linear regression was used with adjustments for age and sex, and correction for multiple comparisons using the false discovery rate method. Proteins significantly associated with B-Cd were replicated in long-term former smokers (n = 782). Significant proteins were then studied in relation to incidence of CVD (i.e., coronary events or ischemic stroke) in never smokers. RESULTS: Fifteen proteins were associated with B-Cd in never smokers. Eight of them were replicated in long-term former smokers. Kidney injury molecule-1, fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF23), tumor necrosis factor receptor-2, matrix metalloproteinase-12, cathepsin L1, urokinase plasminogen activator receptor, C-C motif chemokine-3 (CCL3), and chemokine (C-X3-C motif) ligand-1 were associated with B-Cd both in never smokers and long-term former smokers. Except for CCL3 and FGF23, these proteins were also significantly associated with incidence of CVD. CONCLUSIONS: B-Cd in non-smokers was associated with eight potential plasma biomarkers of CVD and kidney injury. The results suggest pathways for the associations between B-Cd and CVD and kidney injury.

GWAS and colocalization analyses implicate carotid intima-media thickness and carotid plaque loci in cardiovascular outcomes.

Carotid artery intima media thickness (cIMT) and carotid plaque are measures of subclinical atherosclerosis associated with ischemic stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD). Here, we undertake meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in 71,128 individuals for cIMT, and 48,434 individuals for carotid plaque traits. We identify eight novel susceptibility loci for cIMT, one independent association at the previously-identified PINX1 locus, and one novel locus for carotid plaque. Colocalization analysis with nearby vascular expression quantitative loci (cis-eQTLs) derived from arterial wall and metabolic tissues obtained from patients with CHD identifies candidate genes at two potentially additional loci, ADAMTS9 and LOXL4. LD score regression reveals significant genetic correlations between cIMT and plaque traits, and both cIMT and plaque with CHD, any stroke subtype and ischemic stroke. Our study provides insights into genes and tissue-specific regulatory mechanisms linking atherosclerosis both to its functional genomic origins and its clinical consequences in humans.

Correction: Predictive value for cardiovascular events of common carotid intima media thickness and its rate of change in individuals at high cardiovascular risk - Results from the PROG-IMT collaboration.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0191172.].

Blood Lead Levels and Decreased Kidney Function in a Population-Based Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Environmental lead exposure has been associated with decreased kidney function, but evidence from large prospective cohort studies examining low exposure levels is scarce. We assessed the association of low levels of lead exposure with kidney function and kidney disease. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective population-based cohort. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 4,341 individuals aged 46 to 67 years enrolled into the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study-Cardiovascular Cohort (1991-1994) and 2,567 individuals subsequently followed up (2007-2012). PREDICTOR: Blood lead concentrations in quartiles (Q1-Q4) at baseline. OUTCOMES: Change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) between the baseline and follow-up visit based on serum creatinine level alone or in combination with cystatin C level. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence (185 cases) through 2013 detected using a national registry. MEASUREMENTS: Multivariable-adjusted linear regression models to assess associations between lead levels and eGFRs at baseline and follow-up and change in eGFRs over time. Cox regression was used to examine associations between lead levels and CKD incidence. Validation of 100 randomly selected CKD cases showed very good agreement between registry data and medical records and laboratory data. RESULTS: At baseline, 60% of study participants were women, mean age was 57 years, and median lead level was 25 (range, 1.5-258) µg/L. After a mean of 16 years of follow-up, eGFR decreased on average by 6mL/min/1.73m2 (based on creatinine) and 24mL/min/1.73m2 (based on a combined creatinine and cystatin C equation). eGFR change was higher in Q3 and Q4 of blood lead levels compared with Q1 (P for trend = 0.001). The HR for incident CKD in Q4 was 1.49 (95% CI, 1.07-2.08) compared with Q1 to Q3 combined. LIMITATIONS: Lead level measured only at baseline, moderate number of CKD cases, potential unmeasured confounding. CONCLUSIONS: Low-level lead exposure was associated with decreased kidney function and incident CKD. Our findings suggest lead nephrotoxicity even at low levels of exposure.

Predictive value for cardiovascular events of common carotid intima media thickness and its rate of change in individuals at high cardiovascular risk - Results from the PROG-IMT collaboration.

AIMS: Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) predicts cardiovascular (CVD) events, but the predictive value of CIMT change is debated. We assessed the relation between CIMT change and events in individuals at high cardiovascular risk. METHODS AND RESULTS: From 31 cohorts with two CIMT scans (total n = 89070) on average 3.6 years apart and clinical follow-up, subcohorts were drawn: (A) individuals with at least 3 cardiovascular risk factors without previous CVD events, (B) individuals with carotid plaques without previous CVD events, and (C) individuals with previous CVD events. Cox regression models were fit to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of the combined endpoint (myocardial infarction, stroke or vascular death) per standard deviation (SD) of CIMT change, adjusted for CVD risk factors. These HRs were pooled across studies. In groups A, B and C we observed 3483, 2845 and 1165 endpoint events, respectively. Average common CIMT was 0.79mm (SD 0.16mm), and annual common CIMT change was 0.01mm (SD 0.07mm), both in group A. The pooled HR per SD of annual common CIMT change (0.02 to 0.43mm) was 0.99 (95% confidence interval: 0.95-1.02) in group A, 0.98 (0.93-1.04) in group B, and 0.95 (0.89-1.04) in group C. The HR per SD of common CIMT (average of the first and the second CIMT scan, 0.09 to 0.75mm) was 1.15 (1.07-1.23) in group A, 1.13 (1.05-1.22) in group B, and 1.12 (1.05-1.20) in group C. CONCLUSIONS: We confirm that common CIMT is associated with future CVD events in individuals at high risk. CIMT change does not relate to future event risk in high-risk individuals.

New alkylresorcinol metabolites in spot urine as biomarkers of whole grain wheat and rye intake in a Swedish middle-aged population.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Studies on the health effects of whole grains typically use self-reported intakes which are prone to large measurement errors. Dietary biomarkers that can provide an objective measure of intake are needed. New alkylresorcinol (AR) metabolites (3,5-dihydroxycinnamic acid (DHCA), 2-(3,5-dihydroxybenzamido)acetic acid (DHBA-glycine) and 5-(3,5-dihydroxyphenyl) pentanoic acid (DHPPTA)) in 24 h urine samples have been suggested as biomarkers for whole grain (WG) wheat and rye intake but remain to be evaluated in spot urine samples. SUBJECTS/METHODS: The reproducibility of the new AR metabolites (DHCA, DHBA-glycine and DHPPTA) was investigated in 4 repeated samples over a period of 2 wk in spot urine from 40 Swedish men and women enroled in the SCAPIS-study, after adjustment of creatinine. Metabolite concentrations were correlated with total whole grain intake estimated during the same period. RESULTS: The medium-term reproducibility determined for DHCA, DHPPTA and DHBA-glycine varied from moderate to excellent (intra-class correlation coefficient = 0.35-0.67). Moreover, DHCA and DHBA-glycine were independently associated with self-reported total WG intake (ß = 0.18, P = 0.08 and ß = 0.18, P = 0.02, respectively) and all metabolites except for DHPPA were higher among women. CONCLUSIONS: This study supports the idea of using AR metabolites in one or several spot urine samples as biomarkers of whole grain intake. These findings need to be confirmed in different populations.

ST segment depression on 24-hour electrocardiography predicts incident atrial fibrillation in two population-based cohorts.

Aims: ST-depression at 24hECG has not been studied in relation to atrial fibrillation (AF) risk. We aimed to determine whether ST-depression at 24hECG was associated with incident AF in two Swedish population-based cohorts - a sub-cohort of the Malmö Diet and Cancer study (MDCS), and the cohort 'Men born in 1914', and to determine whether 24hECG could be used to predict AF development. Methods and results: There were 378 acceptable 24hECG recordings in the MDCS (mean age 64.5 years, 43% men) and 394 acceptable recordings in 'Men born in 1914' (mean age 68.8 years). Incidence of AF was monitored using national registers of hospitalizations and outpatient visits in Sweden. Mean follow-up ± SD (cumulative incidence) was 10.4 ± 2 years (11.3%) in MDCS, and 10.9 ± 4 years (7.3%) in 'Men born in 1914'. ST-depressions were independently associated with incident AF; hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) 2.41 (1.29-4.50, P = 0.006) and 2.28 (1.05-4.95, P = 0.038) after adjustment [age, sex, height, weight, systolic blood pressure, smoking, anti-hypertensive drugs, LDL/total cholesterol, and HOMA-IR (in MDCS)]. AF incidence was substantially lower in individuals who had neither ST-depressions or high supraventricular activity (SVA, negative predictive value 0.97 and 0.94, in MDCS and 'Men born in 1914', respectively), and similar in men and women. Conclusion: ST-depression at 24h-ECG is independently associated with incident AF, and incidence is substantially lower in individuals with neither ST-depression or high SVA. 24hECG can be used not only to diagnose AF but also to identify individuals at high and low AF risk.

Partial Mediation by Cadmium Exposure of the Association Between Tobacco Smoking and Atherosclerotic Plaques in the Carotid Artery.

Exposure to cadmium confers increased cardiovascular risk. Tobacco smoke contains cadmium, which, hypothetically, may mediate parts of the tobacco-associated risk of developing atherosclerotic plaques. Baseline data from the Swedish Malmö Diet and Cancer cohort (1991-1996) were used to test this hypothesis. Mediation analysis was used to examine associations between smoking and blood cadmium levels and the prevalence of ultrasound-assessed carotid atherosclerotic plaques. The total association with smoking status (never smokers, 2 categories of former smokers, and current smokers) was split into direct and indirect association, and the proportion mediated was estimated. The adjusted estimated plaque prevalence was approximately 27% among never smokers. We identified both a direct and an indirect pathway between smoking and carotid plaques; the indirect association, through cadmium, was observed among current smokers and former smokers who had quit smoking less than 15 years before. For current smokers, the prevalence ratio for plaque was 1.5, with 60%-65% of the association with smoking being mediated through cadmium. Recent former smokers had a prevalence ratio of 1.3, and 40%-45% was mediated through cadmium. Long-time former smokers had a prevalence ratio of 1.2, but none of the association was mediated through cadmium. In conclusion, about two-thirds of the proatherosclerotic association with smoking was mediated by cadmium.

Cadmium, Carotid Atherosclerosis, and Incidence of Ischemic Stroke.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to cadmium has been associated with carotid plaques, inflammation in carotid plaques, and increased risk of ischemic stroke. This study examined the separate and interacting effects of blood cadmium levels and carotid plaques on the risk of incident ischemic stroke. METHODS AND RESULTS: Cadmium levels were measured in 4156 subjects (39.2% men; mean±SD age 57.3±5.9 years) without history of stroke, from the Malmö Diet and Cancer cohort. The right carotid artery was examined using B-mode ultrasound examination at baseline. Incidence of ischemic stroke was monitored over a mean follow-up of 16.7 years. Carotid plaque was present in 34.5% of participants. Cadmium was significantly higher in subjects with plaque (mean±SD: 0.53±0.58 µg/L versus 0.42±0.49 µg/L; P<0.001). A total of 221 subjects had ischemic stroke during the follow-up. Incidence of ischemic stroke was associated both with carotid plaque (hazard ratio 1.44, 95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.90, P=0.009) and cadmium (hazard ratio for quartile [Q] 4 versus Q1-3: 1.95, confidence interval, 1.33-2.85, P=0.001), after adjustment for risk factors. There was a significant interaction between cadmium and plaque with respect to risk of ischemic stroke (P=0.011). Adjusted for risk factors, subjects with plaque and cadmium in Q4 had a hazard ratio of 2.88 (confidence interval, 1.79-4.63) for ischemic stroke, compared with those without plaque and cadmium in Q1 to Q3. CONCLUSIONS: Cadmium was associated with incidence of ischemic stroke, both independently and in synergistic interaction with carotid plaques. This supports the hypothesis that cadmium promotes vulnerability of carotid plaques, thereby increasing the risk of rupture and ischemic stroke.

Complement C3 Associates With Incidence of Diabetes, but No Evidence of a Causal Relationship.

Purpose: This study explored whether complement factor 3 (C3) in plasma is associated with incidence of diabetes in a population-based cohort. We also identified genetic variants related to C3 and explored whether C3 and diabetes share common genetic determinants. Methods: C3 was analyzed in plasma from 4368 nondiabetic subjects, 46 to 68 years old, from the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study. Incidence of diabetes was studied in relationship to C3 levels during 17.7± 4.4 years of follow-up. Genotypes associated with C3 were identified in a genome-wide association study. Diabetes Genetics Replication and Meta-Analysis and the European Genetic Database were used for in silico look-up. Results: In all, 538 (12.3%) subjects developed diabetes during 18 years of follow-up. High C3 was significantly associated with incidence of diabetes after risk factor adjustments (hazard ratio comparing 4th vs 1st quartile, 1.54 (95% confidence interval, 1.13 to 2.09; P = 0.005). C3 was associated with polymorphisms at the complement factor H locus (P < 10-8). However, no relationship with diabetes was observed for this locus. Another eight loci were associated with C3 with P < 10-5. One of them, the glucose kinase regulatory protein (GCKR) locus, has been previously associated with diabetes. The relationship between C3 levels and the GCKR locus was replicated in the European Genetic Database cohort. Conclusions: Plasma concentration of C3 is a risk marker for incidence of diabetes. The results suggest that this association could, in part, be explained by pleiotropic effects related to the GCKR gene.

Fasting levels of growth hormone are associated with carotid intima media thickness but are not affected by fluvastatin treatment.

BACKGROUND: Growth hormone (GH) has been linked to cardiovascular disease but the exact mechanism of this association is still unclear. We here test if the fasting levels of GH are cross-sectionally associated with carotid intima media thickness (IMT) and whether treatment with fluvastatin affects the fasting level of GH. METHODS: We examined the association between GH and IMT in 4425 individuals (aged 46-68 years) included in the baseline examination (1991-1994) of the Malmö Diet and Cancer cardiovascular cohort (MDC-CC). From that cohort we then studied 472 individuals (aged 50-70 years) who also participated (1994-1999) in the ß-Blocker Cholesterol-Lowering Asymptomatic Plaque Study (BCAPS), a randomized, double blind, placebo-controlled, single-center clinical trial. Using multivariate linear regression models we related the change in GH-levels at 12 months compared with baseline to treatment with 40 mg fluvastatin once daily. RESULTS: In MDC-CC fasting values of GH exhibited a positive cross-sectional relation to the IMT at the carotid bulb independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors (p = 0.002). In a gender-stratified analysis the correlation were significant for males (p = 0.005), but not for females (p = 0.09). Treatment with fluvastatin was associated with a minor reduction in the fasting levels of hs-GH in males (p = 0.05) and a minor rise in the same levels among females (p = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: We here demonstrate that higher fasting levels of GH are associated with thicker IMT in the carotid bulb in males. Treatment with fluvastatin for 12 months only had a minor, and probably not clinically relevant, effect on the fasting levels of hs-GH.

Alcohol Consumption and Common Carotid Intima-Media Thickness: The USE-IMT Study.

AIMS: Epidemiological evidence indicates a protective effect of light to moderate alcohol consumption compared to non-drinking and heavy drinking. Although several mechanisms have been suggested, the effect of alcohol on atherosclerotic changes in vessel walls is unclear. Therefore, we explored the relationship between alcohol consumption and common carotid intima media thickness, a marker of early atherosclerosis in the general population. METHODS: Individual participant data from eight cohorts, involving 37,494 individuals from the USE-IMT collaboration were used. Multilevel age and sex adjusted linear regression models were applied to estimate mean differences in common carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) with alcohol consumption. RESULTS: The mean age was 57.9 years (SD 8.6) and the mean CIMT was 0.75 mm (SD 0.177). About, 40.5% reported no alcohol consumed, and among those who drank, mean consumption was 13.3 g per day (SD 16.4). Those consuming no alcohol or a very small amount (<5 g per day) had significantly lower common CIMT values than those consuming >10 g per day, after adjusting for a range of confounding factors. CONCLUSION: In this large CIMT consortium, we did not find evidence to support a protective effect of alcohol on CIMT.

Circulating cadmium concentration and risk of aortic aneurysms: A nested case-control study within the Malmö Diet and Cancer cohort.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Diet and smoking expose the general population to cadmium (Cd), which is a toxic metal that accumulates in the arterial wall. In experimental studies, Cd causes reductions in proliferation of smooth muscle cells and cellular synthesis of procollagen. The aim of this study was to examine whether blood Cd levels, a valid measure of Cd exposure, are associated with increased risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). METHODS: All middle-aged men and women enrolled in the Malmö Diet and Cancer study (n = 30 447) were followed from the baseline examination in 1991-1996 through 2009. A total of 297 cases with AAA and two randomly selected control subjects for each case, matched for age and sex, were included. Blood Cd was analysed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Diagnoses of AAA, thoracic aortic aneurysm and aortic dissection were obtained from registers. RESULTS: Increased blood Cd was associated with increased risk of incident AAA after adjustment for smoking and other established risk factors for AAA. The highest tertile of blood Cd concentrations had a rate ratio of 2.5 (95% confidence interval 1.3, 5.0) for incident AAA. Concentration of blood Cd (log transformed) was not associated with AAA in never-smokers (n = 24). CONCLUSIONS: Blood Cd levels corresponding to the upper tertile of the distribution in the age- and sex-matched control group were associated with a 2.5-fold increase in rate ratio for incident AAA. This relationship was not found in the small group of never-smokers.

Clustering of cardiovascular risk factors and carotid intima-media thickness: The USE-IMT study.

BACKGROUND: The relation of a single risk factor with atherosclerosis is established. Clinically we know of risk factor clustering within individuals. Yet, studies into the magnitude of the relation of risk factor clusters with atherosclerosis are limited. Here, we assessed that relation. METHODS: Individual participant data from 14 cohorts, involving 59,025 individuals were used in this cross-sectional analysis. We made 15 clusters of four risk factors (current smoking, overweight, elevated blood pressure, elevated total cholesterol). Multilevel age and sex adjusted linear regression models were applied to estimate mean differences in common carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) between clusters using those without any of the four risk factors as reference group. RESULTS: Compared to the reference, those with 1, 2, 3 or 4 risk factors had a significantly higher common CIMT: mean difference of 0.026 mm, 0.052 mm, 0.074 mm and 0.114 mm, respectively. These findings were the same in men and in women, and across ethnic groups. Within each risk factor cluster (1, 2, 3 risk factors), groups with elevated blood pressure had the largest CIMT and those with elevated cholesterol the lowest CIMT, a pattern similar for men and women. CONCLUSION: Clusters of risk factors relate to increased common CIMT in a graded manner, similar in men, women and across race-ethnic groups. Some clusters seemed more atherogenic than others. Our findings support the notion that cardiovascular prevention should focus on sets of risk factors rather than individual levels alone, but may prioritize within clusters.

Pro-atrial natriuretic peptide and prediction of atrial fibrillation and stroke: The Malmö Preventive Project.

Background The increasing prevalence of atrial fibrillation and novel therapeutic tools to prevent cardioembolic stroke has increased the need for risk markers. Objectives This study explored the relationship between the midregional sequence of pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP) levels with the risk of atrial fibrillation and stroke, and whether measurement of MR-proANP improves the prediction of these outcomes. Methods MR-proANP was measured in fasting blood samples of 5130 subjects (69% men, mean age 69.2 ± 6.2 years) without a history of atrial fibrillation or stroke from the general population. The incidence of atrial fibrillation and stroke was monitored over a median follow-up of 5.6 years. C-statistics and net reclassification improvement was used to assess the predictive ability of MR-proANP in addition to conventional risk factors. Results Log-normalized MR-proANP was significantly associated with the incidence of atrial fibrillation ( n = 362; hazard ratio (HR); 95% confidence interval (CI) per 1 standard deviation (SD) 2.05, 1.86-2.27) and stroke from all causes ( n = 195; HR 1.30; 95% CI 1.12-1.50). The HR for stroke events related to atrial fibrillation was 1.79 (95% CI 1.25-2.58) per 1 SD. MR-proANP significantly improved the prediction of atrial fibrillation when added to a risk score of conventional risk factors (C statistic 0.69 vs. 0.75), mainly by down-classifying subjects who did not develop atrial fibrillation. A smaller improvement in predictive ability was observed for stroke (C statistic 0.66 vs. 0.68). Conclusion High plasma levels of MR-proANP are associated with the incidence of atrial fibrillation and stroke in the middle-aged and elderly population. MR-proANP may be useful to identify individuals with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation.

Parity, weight change, and maternal risk of cardiovascular events.

BACKGROUND: High parity has been suggested to increase risk of maternal cardiovascular disease independent of body mass index measured after childbearing. Pregnancy is, however, associated with persistent weight gain and metabolic changes that, independent of parity, increase the risk of cardiovascular disease. It could therefore be questioned if high parity independently increases the risk of cardiovascular disease or if this association may be confounded, mediated, or modified by other parity-related factors. OBJECTIVE: We sought to investigate the association between parity and risk of cardiovascular disease, and secondary outcomes in terms of myocardial infarction and cerebral infarction, with particular focus on potential mediation by anthropometric measures and effect modification by lactation. STUDY DESIGN: We used data from 16,515 female participants (age 44.5-73.6 years) of the population-based Malmö Diet and Cancer Study with baseline examination from 1991 through 1996. The Malmö Diet and Cancer Study was followed up throughout 2010, with a median follow-up of 15.8 years. We used Cox proportional hazards model to examine the association between parity and cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: Adjusted for age and other potential confounders, grand multiparous women (≥5 children) had an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio, 1.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-2.14), myocardial infarction (hazard ratio, 1.68; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-2.45), and cerebral infarction (hazard ratio, 1.74; 95% confidence interval, 1.18-2.58) compared to women with 2 children. Additional adjustment for baseline body mass index and weight change since age 20 years attenuated the risk, but the increased risk for cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio, 1.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.87) and myocardial infarction (hazard ratio, 1.53; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-2.26) in grand multiparous women remained significant. Models stratified by lactation time showed that risk was only raised in grand multiparous women who had a mean lactation time of <4 mo/child. In sensitivity analyses excluding women with a history of diabetes at baseline, risk estimates for grand multiparous women became nonsignificant in the full model. CONCLUSION: Part of the increased risk of cardiovascular disease and myocardial infarction in grand multiparous women seems to be mediated by weight gain and potentially by higher likelihood of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Lactation may modify the increased risk of grand multiparity in that longer duration might offset the cardiovascular disease risk.